Fragility can be measured; risk is not measurable. Anything that has more upside than downside from random events (or certain shocks) is antifragile; the reverse is
Optimal stopping problem. Aka the secretary problem. Time to a search if unbounded. If number of candidates is fixed. If no incomplete information, observation only, then
Risk is unknowable future, for gains and losses. An edge is an information edge, tendencies (likely to happen) need to take into account factors. Hard to
Forecasters are just Chips throwing darts at a dartboard, little better than guessing. Butterfly effect, LaPlasses Deamon, lorenzes cloud. We live in a world of predictability
Shifts into easier more logistic work. Network tools move things from deep to shallow Average is over, technology segments and remote work will raise up stars